DAL @ MN 1:00pm ET
Vikings fans should be worried.
Brett Favre struggles against big blitzes. Dallas loves to send big blitzes. Brett Favre can't rely on Adrian Peterson to run consistently (if he plays like the second half of the season, anyway): Dallas will be able to send big blitzes without worrying about draws. Percy Harvin's game has been down ever since his injury, so a great passing option is downgraded and the Vikings will less frequently have the luxury of a short field.
On the other hand, Dallas is playing hot. Tony Romo took down the Saints, right? And they've nailed the Eagles pretty hard three times now, and the Vikings couldn't beat the Cardinals during the regular season, which makes sense as the Cardinals barely beat the Giants... Stop. Judging a team's trends through a web of head-to-head matchups is pointless. What's important is that Romo is playing efficiently and comfortably, in no small part because he has a well-developed running game to rely on and a suite of draws, screens, and play-action passes to fend the defense off--
And that's where this matchup is equalized again. It is difficult to run against the Vikings; that's indisputable. It's so difficult that the choice Dallas faces is to ensure that multiple drives die or to let the run become a secondary, supplementary option. Once Dallas becomes one-dimensional, Dallas starts losing games. Dallas starts playing the way it did against the Giants. In one game, Tony Romo throws fifty-five passes, has a reasonably efficient day, and loses: an incomplete pass on third and two on their first drive to Bennett is pretty representative. In the other Giants loss, the first drive ended... on an incomplete pass on third and two to Bennett.
Even though these are two top-flight offenses, I'd expect them to be moderately unproductive on Sunday for the above reasons: Favre won't have enough time to throw, and Romo won't have enough alternatives for the Vikings not to go all out after the pass. I'll still take the Cowboys, in large part because their side has more creative solutions available, by seven.
NYJ @ SD 4:40pm ET
This is going to be a game of matchups.
- Jets CB Darrelle Revis against... someone.
Darrelle Revis has been in the league since the 2007 season; he had declared for the draft after his junior season at Pitt. By the end of the third season, he has turned himself into the best cornerback in the league. Of course, last year most people would give Nnamdi Asomugha that tag; it's probably fair to say that any judgments made on Revis now are colored by the hype that's surrounded him this season. It's unquestionable, though, that Revis is one of the elite cornerbacks in the league.
It's hard to say what San Diego will try to do offensively to try to account for Revis. Their running game is not nearly reliable enough: ranked by DVOA they're last in the league. This comes because of poor RB play, in part. LT is the forty-first most efficient RB in the league; Darren Sproles is running poorly (and infrequently). Their offensive line is below average at run blocking, but it's not the problem.
The Chargers line has a 4.5% adjusted sack rate, good for fifth in the league. Clearly, the Chargers are going to be passing if they're going to win. It goes without saying that they won't be throwing at Revis. Conveniently, San Diego has two or three primary options: Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and Darren Sproles (who, despite his terrible running stats, is the most productive and second most efficient receiving RB in the league), which is one or two more than the number of Darrelle Revis the Jets have.
Unfortunately, the Jets don't get the best defense in the league by shutting down a team's top receiver and letting everyone else run fancy-free. In fact, the Jets are second in the league (behind the Houston Texans?!) in shutting down passes to RBs. If these guys have a weakness, it's passes to #2 WRs. So the key to the Chargers' success is putting the game in the hands of Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd... or playing Gates at wide receiver. The latter seems safer.
I wouldn't be surprised, actually, if they let Revis pick his man, play-by-play. That would allow them to disguise coverage to a certain extent, for one thing; it would also prevent the Chargers from knowing who's more likely to be open.
That said, if Revis has historically been vulnerable to anyone, it's been tall receivers. He's the tallest Jets corner, too. I wouldn't be too surprised if Philip Rivers targets his man aggressively towards the beginning of the game, just to throw him off. If nothing else, it'll give him an idea of what he'll need to be able to do in later drives. - Jets RB Shonn Greene and RB Thomas Jones against the Chargers run defense.
The Chargers are a weak run defense, too; they're twenty-fifth in the league. Cincinnati was none too strong either, granted, so I wouldn't expect a much better result than last week's, but I think the Chargers are more affected by injuries to their defensive front (relative to the majority of the season, during which they built up that rating) than Cincinnati was last week. The Chargers are great against right tackle runs, fifth in the league (while other positions they're in the twenties). That negates the biggest Jets advantage, leaving them only middle runs and left tackle runs.
I wouldn't be surprised if an unstable run game leads the Jets to favor short passes to their RBs, both of whom can run through or around defensive backs. That way, they build Mark Sanchez's confidence, avoid the teeth of the Chargers defense, and get the ball to their biggest offensive playmakers. - Chargers OL against the Jets pass rush.
Philip Rivers relies on the deep ball more than perhaps any quarterback but Drew Brees. As such, he needs time more than any other quarterback. The Chargers have a tremendously strong offensive line, but it's been hit by injuries and inconsistent play lately.
The Jets won't let them have it. They're only an above average pass rush in terms of sacks, but their rush is much more than that: it's more about hurries and hits, and, in the end, preventing complete passes. They do that excellently, because they frequently don't need to worry about leaving receivers in man coverage. So they'll be able to rush more men, get more hits, and stop more passing plays.
What do I see? I see a Jets victory by three.
EDIT: Jimmy Johnson just said that in Tampa, the Saints went up 17-3 and "had the game won," thus exculpating them from the fact that they, uh, didn't win. What?!
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